It’s Time for Basketball! Trade Rumor: Should Mavs Deal Devin Harris for Jason Kidd?

I know I haven’t posted much on anything besides football, and more specifically the Cowboys, but since football is winding down for the year, I have started gearing up for basketball. I haven’t gotten into it as much this year, as I have in the past few years, for a couple of reasons. The main reason is, obviously, the great season the Cowboys had. It’s just hard for me to focus on anything else when they are having a good season.

The second reason it has taken me longer to get into Mavs basketball is because I got a little burned by the tremendous collapses they have had the past few years. Two years ago, Dallas should have won the NBA title. They had it in their hands…and let it go. They were up 2-0 in the championship series vs. the Miami Heat and in the 3rd game, with about 6 minutes to go in the game, Dallas was up 13 points. The game was in Miami and, at that point, you could see Miami fans leaving the arena basically giving up on their team. I think the Mavs saw that and thought they had the series, and the championship, won. They lost their intensity and went on to lose that game but rumors swirled that they partied it up down on South Beach anyway. The Mavs then went on to lose the next 2 games in Miami. Miami at that point was up 3-2 in the series with the final 2 games to be played in Dallas. Everyone, including myself thought Dallas would win game 6, thereby forcing a game 7, and win the championship. However, the Mavs lost game 6 and the championship on their home floor and had to watch Miami hoist the trophy that, only a couple of weeks earlier, everyone thought they would be hoisting. It was painful to watch and still is baffling to remember.

Last year, the Mavs seemed bound and determined to bounce back from, arguably, the biggest collapse in NBA finals history and get back to the championship game. The team focused on winning every game they could during the season and wound up with a 67-15 record and the #1 seed in the West. The scene was set for another trip to the NBA finals. Dallas’ first round opponent was the Golden State Warriors who had to win their final 5 games just to qualify for the playoffs. Most of the “experts” (writers, commentators, talk show hosts, etc.) as well as fans had Dallas winning the series in 6 games and moving on to play the winner of the Houston – Utah series. However, the basketball gods chose not to grant the Mavs, and their fans, a return trip to the NBA finals. Dallas lost the series in 6 games and 3 of the 4 loses they suffered to Golden State were by double digits. In fact, the Mavs became the first #1 seed to lose in the 1st round of the playoffs since the NBA went to a best of 7 series in the first round (The #8 Denver Nuggets beat the #1 Seattle Sonics back in the mid 90’s…but that was a best of 5 series). My wife’s question “How can the Mavs lose to this team…aren’t they better than this?” still rings in my ears. So, with the Cowboys’ season finally over, the Mavs playoff hangover I had from last season is finally wearing off. However, after the massive finals collapse two years ago and a 67 win season last year ending with such an abrupt thud, most fans don’t care what Dallas does in the regular season…they just want to see a deep playoff run.

It seems the Mavs are involved in trades and trade rumors every year, usually just before the trade deadline. This year is no different as the latest rumor has the Mavs involved in a 3 team trade with the New Jersey Nets and Portland Trailblazers. The trade is outlined like this: Dallas would get Jason Kidd from the Nets; Dallas would send Jerry Stackhouse and Devean George to the Nets; Dallas would send Devin Harris to the Trailblazers; the Trailblazers would send a player to be named to the Nets. Make sense? In NBA trades, all the salaries being traded have to equal out and since Jason Kidd earns $19 million this season and $21 million next season, that is the reason for getting Portland involved.

If Dallas makes this trade they are saying 2 things: 1) That Devin Harris is not the player they envisioned him being when they took him with the 5th overall pick a four years ago and 2) since Kidd is in his later 30’s, the future is NOW and the window for Dallas winning a championship is this year and/or next year, at most. Because of his age, I don’t think you can really count on Jason Kidd beyond that. So, the dilemma for Dallas is do they gamble by putting everything they have into winning a title in the next two years with Kidd or do they stick with a young, productive and improving player in Harris in hopes he can get his game to the next level?

I’ve gone back and forth in my head about which way I think the Mavs should go. On one hand with Kidd, you get solid veteran leadership and a premier point guard who is averaging 10.4 assists per game (Harris is averaging half that amount). On the other hand, Harris has steadily improved from year to year and is still pretty young so he could be part of a solid core to build around in the future (plus, Harris plays his best when he is playing the Suns and the Spurs). However the Western conference, which has been ridiculously good the past several years, has only gotten better this year and the gap between the Mavs/Suns/Spurs and the rest of the conference has shortened, thereby shortening the window the big 3 of the west have to win a title.

Taking all this into account (and if the deal DOES NOT include Josh Howard in ANY way), I think I would make that trade. After experiencing the success the Mavs have had over the last 7-8 years and seeing their recent failures, simply being competitive is not enough. When Dallas was a terrible team in the late 90’s, simply making the playoffs was the goal. Now that the Mavs have reached, and eclipsed, that level, they must attain the final level and that is a championship. If Kidd can get them there, I say you make that happen. I do not dislike Devin Harris (he is actually my wife’s favorite Mav’s player) and I think he has loads of potential…but that is all it is right now, potential. Much like my opinion regarding the Cowboys trading Marion Barber (below post), Jason Kidd is a known commodity. And while the Mavs think Devin Harris may become an elite point guard, he still has a ways to go to get there…and he may not ever get to that level.

Dallas should do whatever it takes, short of trading Dirk or Josh Howard, to win a title. And if that means moving Harris on to another team, then they really should swallow hard and move on with it.

Draft Trade Rumors Already?

So the draft is a few months away and we have already started hearing about trade rumors regarding the Cowboys. Here is the latest rumor being tossed around which has big Bill Parcells trying to do some wheelin’ and dealin’ to get Marion Barber down to Miami. The rumored trade has Dallas sending Barber plus both of their 1st round draft picks (both in the 20’s) to Miami for the #1 overall pick in the draft whereby it is assumed Dallas would take running back Darren McFadden out of Arkansas.

I gotta tell you, I’m not too high on this. I have become a Marion Barber fan over the last couple of years and would hate to see him get away. The majority of the time Barber touches the ball, he gets positive yardage. Even if he only gets a couple of yards, he will punish those who try to tackle him and most of the time it takes more than one person to bring him down. Not only is he a tenacious runner but he can catch the ball out of the back field and doesn’t fumble so he can be trusted to salt the game away late in the 4th quarter, if Dallas is in that position. And while I’m not sure if he can be a 20 – 25 carry running back, if he is used properly, he can be as effective if not more effective than the majority of running backs in the league right now.

Another reason I’m against this trade is because Marion Barber is a known commodity…Darren McFadden isn’t. McFadden had a couple of outstanding years at Arkansas, no doubt about it. Rookie Viking running back Adrian Peterson had similar success at Oklahoma so people naturally think that McFadden’s success will translate to the pros. However, some may remember the names of these outstanding college running backs who never panned out in the NFL: Ki-Jana Carter, Rashan Salaam (who won the Heisman) and Curtis Enis. Those guys were pretty close to “can’t miss” guys on draft day. And that is just off the top of my head…I bet I could find more names of RBs that flamed out in the NFL if I researched it.

The point is, you don’t know if McFadden could be the next Emmitt Smith or the next high draft pick to not live up to expectation. And with the #1 overall pick comes a pretty heavy price tag. That pick will probably will be guaranteed $40 million or so which could drastically affect Dallas’ salary cap in the coming years. Remember, the Cowboys have other needs to fill. Dallas needs to beef up it’s receiving corps as Terry Glenn may get cut (he is getting ready to have his 3rd knee surgery in less than a year) and T.O. Owens probably has just a few more good years left. Dallas also needs to try to improve it’s defensive backfield with a safety, cornerback or both. Dallas could take a wide receiver (Mario Manningham from Michigan or Malcolm Kelly from Oklahoma) with it’s 1st pick in the first round and could take a corner/safety or even a back up RB (Felix Jones from Arkansas) to compliment Barber with it’s 2nd pick in the first round.

So, my opinion is that this would be a bad move for the Cowboys to make. There are other needs that Dallas has and the risk/reward factor is not in Dallas’ favor. Of course this would put Dallas in the news and Jerry isn’t afraid of taking risks (see Joey Galloway trade in 1999). Plus McFadden is from Arkansas and Jones still has strong ties back to that school. So, I won’t be surprised if something like this trade happens…I just won’t be pleased if it does.

Coaching Changes for the Cowboys

If a professional sports team has any kind of success during a given season one thing that is bound to happen is an exodus of its coaching staff. This doesn’t necessarily occur because the coaches want to leave but rather because other teams, which didn’t have success, hire them away. It happened to the mid 90’s Cowboys and is happening to this year’s Cowboy team.

Jason Garrett, Dallas’ offensive coordinator, was one of the coaches that had a huge hand in the success the team enjoyed this year. The offense didn’t really add much from last year, except o-lineman Leonard Davis, but the play calling of Garrett help the Dallas offense roll through the regular season to a 13-3 record. Garrett is highly thought of around the NFL and actually interviewed for the head coaching job for 2 different teams last week: Atlanta and Baltimore. Atlanta is in a state of disarray with their star player, Michael Vick, in jail for the next couple of years and their former head coach, Bobby Petrino (a weasel for sure), bolted for the head gig of the University of Arkansas after coaching less than 1 season. Baltimore doesn’t look much better due to few offensive weapons and an aging defense. When it came down to it, Jerry Jones got Garrett to stay by making him the highest paid coordinator in the NFL. Jones also gave him the title Asst. Head Coach.

I assume Jerry also made Garrett the promise that he would be the next head coach of the Cowboys. That’s all well and good however we don’t know when that will be. If Dallas goes to the NFC Championship or even the Super Bowl next year and loses, does Jerry have the brass to fire Wade Phillips? I guess so…I mean anyone who could fire an NFL icon like Tom Landry can fire anyone at anytime. But you get my point. If Dallas has the same success next year, Garrett will be at the top of everyone’s list of head coaching prospects. Will Jerry be able to fend off another attack trying to pry Garrett away from Big D? Probably not.

Part of me thinks Garrett made the right move in staying and part of me thinks he should have taken one of the head coaching jobs offered to him. As I said above, the other two teams Garrett interviewed with are major rebuilding projects and it is not a given that he would be successful. However, with the current offensive personnel in Dallas, Garrett knows he can be highly successful, as he was this year (up until December that is…). However, in the coaching profession, you have to strike while you’re hot. The top name this year could fall off the map next year depending on what the team does. I don’t think that is the last head coaching job Garrett will be offered but you never know in this business.

Other coaching changes for Dallas essentially amounted to a trade with Miami. Tony Sparano who was the Asst. Head Coach/offensive line coach last year with Dallas became Miami’s head coach while Dallas brought back Hudson Houck to once again coach the offensive line. During his first stint with the Cowboys, Houck coached the offensive line from 1993 to 2001. Houck was a great signing because he knows the organization, has worked with Jason Garrett and is one of the better o-line coaches in the league.

A Quick Look Back at the AFC and NFC Championship Games

Yesterday, the AFC and NFC played their respective championship games sending the winner of both to face each other in Super Bowl XLII. Well, one of the games yesterday turned out the way I thought it would and another did not. Let’s start with the game that ended up as I thought it would.

The AFC pitted the New England Patriots against the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers were the mystery guest here as pretty much everyone, including myself, thought it was a given that they would lose last week to the Colts and we would, yet again, have an AFC championship between Indy and New England. Well, San Diego played hard and fought the good fight but in the end New England had too many weapons and outlasted the Chargers just as they had done 17 previous times this year. New England now becomes the only team in NFL history to go 18-0. And despite winning the game, the Patriots didn’t play particularly sharp on either side of the ball. Brady was not really “Bradyesque” yesterday as he threw 3 interceptions. San Diego refused to sit back and let Brady pick them apart (as they did the first time they play NE this year) and got pressure on him forcing him into bad throws.

On the defensive side of the ball, New England gave up 4 red zone trips to San Diego, however they stiffened each time only surrendering a field goal each trip. Part of the reason for this is because LaDanian Tomlinson was only in for a few plays at the beginning of the game but then his coaches held him out the rest of the game due to his nagging injury. LT’s absence limited the options for the offense and New England took full advantage. This is where San Diego lost the game. You CAN’T get that close to scoring a touchdown 4 times and only come away with 12 points, especially against the Patriots. So, the Pats win another game…ho, hum. However, the NFC championship game turned out to be twice as entertaining and intriguing.

In the NFC championship game, we saw the New Yawk Giants take on the Green Bay Packers. The temperature of the game was bone chilling to say the least. At kick off, the actual temp was -1 with a wind chill of -23. It was the 2nd coldest game ever at Lambeau Field (of course the Ice Bowl was the coldest). I expected Green Bay to come out and torch the Giants, much like they did last week vs. Seattle. However, for most of the first quarter Green Bay didn’t really look like they wanted to be playing. New Yawk was running ok, Eli was passing well (much to EVERYONE’S amazement) and the Giant’s defense was holding up pretty well. Basically it looked like the Giants picked up where they left off last week in Dallas. The whole game, the Packers had absolutely no answer for Plaxico Burress which, in my mind, is now an elite WR in the league.

But Green Bay picked things up in the second quarter and started playing like we expected. They never really got their running game going on a consistent basis but had a couple of bursts here and there which helped keep the Giant’s defense on their toes. However, Green Bay has multiple penalties (much like Dallas did last week) at crucial times. The Giants, though, didn’t seem like they wanted to win as Lawrence Tynes missed 2 field goals late in the game, one in the last 4 seconds, which pushed the game into overtime.

In overtime, the Packers won the toss and started with the ball. Green Bay started working down the field and I really thought the Giants were about to lose. But as great as Brett Farve is, he has the propensity of throwing costly interceptions which he did last night in the overtime period. The ending result…well, I’ll let Eddie Murphy tell you:



If I would have told you 2 weeks ago that one of the Manning brothers would be going to the Super Bowl, I bet you would have said, "Great! Peyton beat Brady!"...as would I. Who would have thought little "dumb face" Eli would take his team all the way to the Super Bowl ("dumb face" does not mean I think he is dumb. Eli just has a "dumb" expression on his face seemingly all the time. It doesn't look like he can 2+2 but he probably can. Wait, he went to Ole Piss so he probably can't...). Well, let just hope he still has a little magic left in him. He's gonna need every weapon he's got (and then some) to beat the Pats. I never thought I would say this but, Let's Go G-Men!

Could Sunday’s Loss Actually Be a Good Thing for the Cowboys?

This past weekend, ESPN was running a series of shows titled “ESPN’s Greatest Games” and since the wife was out to a movie with her friends I took full advantage and tuned in to one of these. The program featured a particular game of interest from the past along with commentary from coaches and players as the game progressed. The particular game being reviewed in this episode was the 1996 playoff game between the Denver Broncos and Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville, in only it’s 2nd year of existence at the time, barely made the playoffs and was playing the heavily favored Denver Broncos, in Denver. Jacksonville, behind a young and gritty Mark Brunell, pulled off the upset against a stunned Broncos team which pretty much thought they would be playing in the Super Bowl.

When interviewed about this game, most of the Broncos players said that they didn’t like to think about the game because of the memories it brought back. The Broncos (like the Cowboys this year) had a successful season and were one of the top teams in the league, not just the AFC. Most people had at least penciled Denver in the AFC Championship if not the Super Bowl altogether. However, it was not meant to be that year.

Interviews from some of the Denver players indicated that when they returned for training camp the following August, the attitude of the team was that anything less than a Super Bowl win would be unacceptable. That season, Denver made the playoffs as a wild card but would eventually go on to face the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl. Denver was a pretty heavy underdog but the team had the resolve, it didn’t have the year before when playing Jacksonville, to gut out an improbable win against the Packers. Many of the Denver players said, as painful as it was to lose to Jacksonville, that loss helped galvanize the team and propel them to a world championship a year later.

Many people had Dallas penciled in the Super Bowl this year…or at least playing in the NFC championship game. However, collectively, they blew it. My hope is that the same attitude that brought the Broncos together back in 1997 will permeate the Cowboys locker room next Fall. Outside of Dallas’ WR corps, the team is really pretty young. Hopefully in another ten years we will be watching Dallas talk about winning their 6th Lombardi Trophy and how loosing to the Giants in 2008 helped make that possible.

What Just Happened?

I don't know where to start, I really don't. I truly feel ill. I don't know which is a bigger let down...the Mavs choking it away, as a #1 seed, to Golden State last spring or Dallas losing tonight, as a #1 seed, to the Giants. I will say this...Tony Romo going off to Mexico had not a damn thing to do with the reason Dallas' season is now over and ANYONE who says so is a freaking moron, period. I know I might hear that this week (and it will make me crazy every time I hear it) but I will try to block that out. Romo's play was NOT what got Dallas beat. The thing that got Dallas beat was the biggest strength of the team coming into the game today...the offensive line. I have absolutely no idea what happened to the offensive line and every one of them is going to have 6 months to think about how they let the game get away. The reason Dallas lost starts there...and ends there in my opinion.

In the second quarter, the Cowboys, had a 10 minute drive where they completed 3rd down conversion after 3rd down conversion. Romo was looking sharp, Barber was running with fury and the offensive line was doing a what they normally do...beating up the defensive line of the opposition. Very little, if any, pressure was getting to Romo. In 3 consecutive series, Dallas scored a TD, a TD and a field goal.

But in the second half the offensive line, for whatever reason, stopped playing with the fire they had all season. They started letting guys through to get to Romo. And the Giants were getting to Romo without blitzing linebackers or defensive backs...they were getting to Romo with their defensive line. Romo was running for his life and just didn't have the time he had in the first half. The huge holes that were there for Barber in the first half were no longer there in the second half. How many penalties were made that shouldn't have been. And how many more freaking false starts must we endure from Flozell Adams?!?!?!?!? Holy crap...pull your freaking head out!!! But he wasn't the only one with mental breakdowns.

Leonard Davis (which was a HUGE signing in the off season, both literally and figuratively) has played very well all year and is going to Pro Bowl because of it. But the penalty he had in the 3rd quarter when he hit Strahan late, which nullified a Cowboys 1st down, was where the game turned. From there, Dallas had to punt from deep in the own territory and the Giants got a 25 yd return from R.W. McQuarters. The Giants ended up getting the go ahead TD on that drive.

Objectively, Dallas did not play their best football in December. Through their first 12 games, Dallas averaged scoring 33 pts and allowing 20 points. The final four games, Dallas averaged scoring 15 pts and allowing 19 points...and that was the game we say tonight. The Giants, on the flip side, were probably playing some of their best football during the past 3 games and they played well enough to beat Dallas.

But Dallas has no one to blame but themselves for losing. New York's defense was far from healthy. The Giants already had two starters out (Madison and Dockery) and ended up losing Aaron Ross in the 3rd quarter. So New York was playing with a defensive secondary basically held together with duct tape and chicken wire. And Dallas' high powered offense (with Terrell Owens, Jason Witten, Marion Barber, and Terry Glenn) couldn't take advantage of it. Just sickening...absolutely sickening. Give all the credit in the world to the Giants because it appeared they wanted it more than Dallas. That's probably not true...but that's what it looked like at the end of the game. New York played harder in the second half and took the game away from Dallas, not that Dallas did anything to really prevent it.

Dallas IS the better team...no doubt in my mind about it. They just are. But they didn't play like it tonight. They played a home game against a team, in the New York Giants, which was not as healthy, after a full 2 weeks of rest and only managed 17 points. That is just...unfathomable. Dallas now becomes the 1st #1 seeded team, since 1990, to lose in the divisional round of the playoffs. Oh, and Dallas STILL hasn't won a playoff game since 1997. Un-freaking-believable.

This is such a bitter pill to swallow, a bitter, bitter pill. I honestly thought Dallas would be in the Super Bowl...I really did. And now we have until next September to see if the team can bounce back and take that next step. I think Romo is going to need to go a little farther than Cabo to get over this one.

A Few More Facts About This Weekend’s Giants – Cowboys Game

Here are a few facts about this weekend’s game and why it is so hard to pick:

Stats that could favor Dallas:

- Since 1990, in the divisional round of the playoffs, the rested home teams that lost their final game of the season (like Dallas this year) are 24-5 (83%).

-In that time same, rested home teams favored by 7 points or more (like Dallas is) are 15-1 (94%).

-The key to Dallas winning is stopping, or slowing, Giants WR Plaxico Burress. Of the 23 TD passes thrown by Manning this year, 12 were to Burress. No other Giants player had more than 3. Stop, or limit, Burress’ production and you stop or limit the Giants offense.


Stats that could favor New Yawk:

-Since the NFL merger, there have been 17 times where a team met it’s opponent in the playoffs for the 3rd time that season (like Dallas and NY this year). The team that has won the previous 2 meetings is 11-6 (65%). Even though this stat slightly favors Dallas, it also shows that upsets happen more than just a couple of times in this situation.

-1993 is the last time both #1 seeds for the NFC and AFC (Dallas for the NFC; Buffalo for the AFC) have gone to the Super Bowl. This year, the #1 seeds are Dallas and New England and we all know what kind of season New England has had. So, if I were a betting man and had to pick one of those two teams to lose before the Super Bowl, I don’t think I could objectively pick New England.

-If T.O. Owens is out of the game, or severely limited, Dallas is in trouble…period Since he got hurt before half time of the Carolina game, Dallas (without Owens in the line up) has scored 4 field goals in 6 quarters. Not good…

A Look Back on College Football - The SEC…Still the Best on the Block

I’m always a little down after the college football championship game is over because that means no more college football until September. This was the case on Monday night after I witnessed LSU win it’s 3rd national championship by defeating Ohio State who had just lost it’s 2nd straight national championship game. Oh yeah, both teams Ohio State lost to, Florida and LSU, were from the SEC.

The SEC has proved yet again it is hands down, top to bottom the best conference in the country when it comes to college football. Consider the following points when comparing the SEC to the other 5 BCS conferences for 2007:

-The SEC sent the most teams to bowl games (9)
-The SEC had the highest winning percentage in bowl games (78%)
-The SEC sent 2 teams to BCS bowls (winning both)
-The SEC won back-to-back national championships (Florida last year, LSU this year)
-Since the inception of the BCS, the SEC has won the most national championships (4)

This season, we learned that not only is the SEC the best football conference but we also learned that the season would be better if we had some sort of playoff system in place. I know when I say “we” I may not be talking about everyone because clearly not everyone shares my opinion about this topic. However, there are many that do.

Think about how crazy this country goes for 2 weeks in March when the college basketball playoffs commence. I know comparing the current basketball playoff system with 64 teams to a possible football playoff system with 6-8 teams isn’t exactly apples to apples but you get the point I am trying to make. For instance, I would love to see if USC could take down LSU. Or who would win if Georgia and West Virginia squared off. Or if Kansas could win it all.

I know there is little chance the NCAA will ever move to any playoff format for college football because the sponsor money from the bowls (especially the BCS bowls) is just too lucrative. But to me, that is a lame excuse. If Div. I-AA, Div. II and Div. III college football can have a playoff system, Div. I should be able to follow suit. There has got to be a way that the bowls can even be working into a playoff format. I’m sure with all the mighty brain power the NCAA has at their disposal that they can make it work. They problem is they don’t want to make it work.

The BCS system is better than the way the national champion was crowned before 1998. Before 1998, voters decided the best team in the country instead of letting things be decided on the field. However, a playoff system is ultimately the best way to crown the best team in the country. Hopefully, the NCAA will get it’s act together sometime in the future and make a playoff system work. Until then, there will be teams left out of the national championship which could actually be the best team in the country.

G-Men vs. Los Vaqueros...The 3rd, and Final, Round

The one team I didn’t want Dallas to face in the playoffs makes their way to Texas Stadium this Sunday. The New Yawk Giants are a team that is playing well, has revenge on their mind and is capable of pulling off the upset. They are also very comparable to Dallas in just about every way. Amazingly, this is the first time the division rivals have faced each other in the post season. My gut tells me though that Dallas wins a close game (3-7 pt difference) because I really think Dallas is the better team overall. But then again, the Mavs were the better team last year too (vs. Golden State) and that was a series and not one game...and everyone knows how that series ended up. So, I'm a little nervous about this game for the following reasons:

-T.O. Owens may not play but if he does, he won't be 100%. He is THE difference maker and the Dallas offense will not be the same without him. The level at which he plays could determine how the offense plays. This is not like the injury he came back from in ’04 to play in the Super Bowl when he was with the Eagles. He had 7 weeks to come back from that and that was the final game of the year. If he does play and aggravates his ankle injury, Dallas could be in trouble.

-Eli is a solid QB (NOT unstoppable as in the Citizen watch commercial), contrary to popular opinion, and with both Amani Toomer and Plaxico Burress both healthy and playing well right now, that could really test Dallas' secondary…which we all know is Dallas’ weakness on defense. Burress is a legitimate top tier WR and is scary good when he is healthy…which he is.

-Even though Shockey is out, the Giants haven't really missed him. They gave New England all they could handle and beat Tampa Bay in Tampa.

-The ONLY road loss for the Giants this year was the opener in Dallas...they are not afraid of playing on the road (however, Dallas was also 7-1 on the road this year with the lone loss coming against the Deadskins).

-The defensive front four for the Giants (Strahan, Umenyiora, etc.) are playing very well right now. They are healthy and could make things interesting for Romo.

-Even though Dallas is the top seed, they haven't won a playoff game since 1996, which I attended, and the last time they tried to beat a team 3 times in the same season, they lost in the playoffs to a Jake Plummer led Cardinals team in 1998.

Reasons I think Dallas will win a close game:

-I think they really are the better team overall.

-I don't see T.O. Owens sitting this one out. I will be shocked if he does. And Owens at 80% is better than a lot of starting WRs in the league today.

-The addition of Terry Glenn will take some pressure off Owens/Witten and provide another ample offensive weapon for Romo. Glenn, also, may not be 100% but he will command a fair share of attention due to his speed and ability to stretch the field.

-I think Romo will have a very solid game. He really has only had one bad game this year (vs. the Filthadelphia Foul in Dec.) which WASN’T due to Jessica Simpson’s presence. The media hype about him going to Mexico this past weekend won’t make a difference with his preparation for this weekend. Romo is viewed as a top tier QB all over the NFL and for good reason…because he is that good. However, if Dallas loses or Romo struggles, the media and some fans will attribute it to not being focused enough on football and being too focused on his blond girlfriend.

-Outside of TO Owens, everyone else is healthy. And since Dallas' offensive line has done a pretty good job against the Giants pass rush two previous times this season, I think they will be able to hold their own again giving Romo time in the pocket. And generally if Romo is given a little time, he will make something good happen.

-Dallas’ defense has been getting good pressure on the opposing QB and has gotten better as the year has progressed. I don't expect that to change on Sunday either. Eli's flaw is how he plays under pressure which has gotten to him in the previous 2 games vs. Dallas. Dallas needs to collapse the pocket and force him into bad throws as they did previously. If Eli is given time though, he will sit back and pick Dallas’ secondary apart.

-Even though they beat Tampa Bay, the Giants didn't really open up their offense that much and Eli didn't lose the game for them. Tampa Bay is very average, at best, offensively so while the Giants looked solid in beating them, you also have to consider the opponent. Dallas is very potent, offensively, and the Giants' secondary is suspect. If the pass rush doesn't get to Romo, the Giants' secondary will be exposed.

In the end, I think Dallas wins a close game. But like I said, I am nervous about it. It’s one game and even though Dallas won the previous two games, they were both close late in the 4th quarter and Dallas needed 50 yard TDs (in both games) to put them away. The best team doesn’t always happen to win…but I think it does here. Prediction: Dallas 28, New Yawk 23.