Friday, February 29, 2008

Avery, What Were You Thinking?

I don’t have much hair left but Avery Johnson caused me to lose more of it last night. The Mavs played the Spurs last night and to tell you the truth, I didn’t give Dallas 3 chances in 10 to beat San Antonio. First off, the game was in San Antonio where the Spurs have lost all of 3 games this year. Second, the Spurs (before last night) had won 6 games in a row and are probably playing their best basketball of the season. Third, Dallas is still getting used to playing with Jason Kidd (and vice versa). So, all that to me added up to about a 10 point loss.

However, Dallas played very well and even led much of the game. But, in the last 35 seconds, with Dallas trailing by 2, Avery pulled Jason Kidd out of the game and inserted Jerry Stackhouse so that the Mavs would have an extra shooter on the floor. I don’t agree with that at all. What did the Mavs go out and get Kidd for? I don’t think they gave up Devin Harris, DeSagana Diop, two 1st round picks and 3 million dollars to have Kidd on the bench in crunch time vs. the Spurs. That was lunacy.

Jason Kidd may not score a lot but he can distribute and handle the ball better than any one else on the Mavs roster. Instead, Avery had Jason Terry running the point and even though he is typically a good shooter, he isn’t a good point guard. It should be noted that on the final play where Terry drove the lane and had his shot blocked by Bruce Bowen, Dirk was on the wing, wide open at the 3 pt. arc. Terry didn’t even look to pass. I think Kidd would have and would have found Dirk for the shot.

I’m not saying that Dallas would have won but I like Kidd running the offense better than I like Terry running it. That final play was a busted play anyway and, in that situation, you need people on the floor that can make plays…Kidd can do that. I even remember Avery saying during Kidd’s introductory press conference that the Mavs brought Kidd in to “close out games.” What was that last night? That was a close out game if there ever was one!

If I were Kidd in this situation, I wouldn’t have been happy at all about sitting on the bench in that situation. And neither would Avery. If in the same position, when Avery played for the Spurs, if Popovich would have benched Avery in favor of another “shooter”, I feel very safe in saying that would not have set well at all with him.

I still think Avery is a good coach but he is going to take a lot of heat for that decision which he deserves. However, looking at the result (and after Avery watches the film and sees a wide open Dirk) I don’t think that will happen again. And it most definitely shouldn’t!

Friday, February 22, 2008

Review of the Jason Kidd Trade

Well, now that Jason Kidd has officially arrived, and played his first game, I thought I would give my initial thoughts on the positives and drawbacks that come with this trade. First the positives:

-Kidd is mentally tough as he led New Jersey to back to back finals appearances in 2002 and 2003. The Mavs right now, in my opinion, are not mentally tough. This is in large part to two of the biggest postseason collapses in NBA history in back to back seasons. Looking at the Mavs this year, they just don’t look like the same team (even though much of the roster is the same) they were last year or the previous season. They need someone that is going to push the team and not let another team impose it’s will on the Mavs (see Golden State in the playoffs last year). I think once Kidd gets acclimated to the team he can be the mentally tough leader the Mavs need.

-Even though the Mavs lost in New Orleans the other night, Kidd showed flashes of why he was brought to Dallas. The very first play of the game where Kidd lobbed a half court pass to Josh Howard for an easy score comes to mind here. Kidd sees the court very well, knows the game very well and knows how to play the point guard position. He can distribute the ball when his team mates are in good scoring position and, even though he has lost a little of his quickness due to his age, teams still need to respect his ability to drive and get to the basket.

-As I noted in the post below, this will benefit Avery as well because he won’t have to coach Kidd as much as he had to coach Harris. Devin is a good player but he is still learning how to play the point guard position. This would be evident as, about half the time Dallas would call a time out, Avery would be in Devin’s ear about what he just did or didn’t do. Kidd is still a top 5 point guard in the league and is an immediate upgrade from Devin Harris.

Now, the drawbacks from this trade:

-Dallas gave up quite a bit for this trade: point guard Devin Harris, forwards DeSagana Diop and Trenton Hassell, guard Maurice Ager, two future first-round draft picks, $3 million and semi-retired former Net Keith Van Horn, whose rights the Mavericks own. The two things I think Dallas will miss from this list are DeSegana Diop and the draft picks. Even though Diop has taken a step back from where he was the last two years, he still was a serviceable backup for Dampier (heactually matched up better against San Antonio than Dampier). Now, that the trade deadline has passed, Dallas is going to have to keep their eyes peeled on the waiver wire for another big man to back up Damp. That means they will end up signing someone who has been cut by another team or wasn’t playing to begin with because no other team wanted them. Dallas must also find a veteran point guard to spell Kidd when he needs a rest. Right now, JJ Barea is Kidd’s back up and that just will not do especially in the playoffs. However, Gary Payton would be a viable candidate for this spot as he is a solid veteran who is no currently on anyone’s roster.

-While lower 1st round draft picks don’t produce a ton of talent some of the time (Dallas’ last two first round picks are Maurice Ager who basically doesn’t play and Nick Fazekas who Dallas recently cut) those are picks Dallas could have used to replace talent lost in this trade. Keep in mind that Josh Howard was a low first round pick as well as Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, so talent can be found there.

-While Devin Harris was still learning, he did match up and play well against San Antonio which is Dallas’ main competition year in and year out. While Kidd may be able to hold his own, defensively, against other teams he may not be able to keep up with Tony Parker but that will remain to be seen.

Even though Dallas didn’t fare that well in their first game with Kidd, keep in mind they were playing the top team in the Western conference (New Orleans) and the game was tight until the last part of the 3rd quarter when Chris Paul exploded for New Orleans. Also, I think that once Kidd gets used to playing with the team, and vice versa, they will be better than they were the other night. They don’t have very long for this to happen though due to the depth of the western conference. However the next three games are against Memphis, Minnesota and Chicago…all of which are pretty poor teams. So, the Mavs and Kidd should take full advantage of this time because their schedule only gets tougher and another small slump, like they had before the all star break, could drop them out of playoff contention altogether.

Thursday, February 14, 2008

Mavs Trade for Kidd: My Thoughts (If It Happens…)

As I have already mentioned, I am onboard with the Mavs bringing Jason Kidd in to try to win a title within the next few years. Right now the trade is being held up but I really think it will get done one way or the other. This is a major move and although I’m not thrilled with all the pieces from the Mavs being shipped out (ex. Diop is included which will leave NO backup for Dampier) I know to get something, you have to give up something. Don’t get me wrong. I haven't lost all faith in the team. They still are very good. However, there is something wrong with this mix of guys. I can't put my finger on it but there is something definitely wrong and it has been all year, not just the last few games. Here are my reasons I am onboard with this trade (if/when it happens):

-At the beginning of the year, I really thought that the current roster could win a championship. But that was before the season really got going. What is troubling to me is how the Mavs have struggled against lesser opponents. Consider the teams they have lost to this year, from the leastern conference: Chicago, Washington (multiple times), Atlanta, Milwaukee, New Jersey and Philadelphia. The last two (NJ, Philly) are in such disarray that Dallas should have beaten them with their JV team (like they did last night vs. Portland). Instead, they got run out of the building in both places. None of the teams I just mentioned have a .500 record and really only one (Washington) is even sniffing .500 ball. However, Dallas has played well against Western teams...this far.

-Even though Dallas plays VERY WELL at home, their road record is abysmal. They already have 14 loses on the road and the last time they were a sub .500 road team was back in 03-04 which ended with a 1st rd loss to Sac town. With the exception of 03-04, Dallas has been one of the best road teams in the league every year. But this year, it just aint happenin' for them. If they can't figure out how to win on the road consistently, a first round exit is NOT out of the possibility given the depth of Western conference teams.

-If the playoffs started today, Houston would be out of the playoffs...and they are just 3 games behind Dallas. The Western conference is ridiculously good, deep and wide open. So now is the time to make a move! The Mavs schedule after the all star break is sick...multiple games vs. all the Western foes. So all it takes is a little slump, for them to be out of contention all together. Do I think that will happen? Probably not. It would take a meltdown of sizeable proportion for Dallas not to make the playoffs, although meltdowns have been par for the course the last two playoff years.

-I am not anti Devin Harris. I like Devin and acknowledge he has improved each year however, I am not sold on him becoming the next John Stockton (which may be too much to ask, however he was taken #5 overall in the draft). He has speed and quickness, which is great, but there are holes in his game especially with his shooting and assists. I'm not asking him to be Nash or Kidd, when it comes to assists, but he should already be better (in my opinion) than he is currently with that. You KNOW what Kidd has. You don't know, definitively, what Harris has. He has potential...quite a bit of it. But if that potential is never realized and he never takes that final step to being an elite point guard, then all we had to begin with was potential. If the team waits for Harris to develop another 3 years, where will Dirk be in his game? Will he start to be on the decline at that point? Dallas’ window to win a title is shutting (just like the window for Phoenix, San Antonio, Boston, Detroit, etc.) so the future is now.

-I think this move would benefit Avery too. He is one helluva good coach and knows the game inside and out. But it seems after every game you hear him saying the same thing: "We just took too many jump shots tonight." The Mav’s defense is sloppy (or nonexistent at times) and the team reminds me too much of Nellie's jump shooting teams. But Kidd can get to the basket and distribute the ball better than Harris who is still learning how to play the point guard position. Avery won’t have to constantly coach Kidd from the bench like he does with Devin. He can let Kidd run the offense and be the “quarterback” of the team. Right now, I’m not too sure Avery feels comfortable totally giving the reigns over to Harris to run the offense in the playoffs.

If Kidd is brought in, the team gets better immediately for this year and next. After that, who knows. I'm not knee jerking, I'm really not. Like I said at the beginning, I think the team is still very good. However, I think the past two post season crashes have taken their toll on the team mentally and this is a trade that needs to be made.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

How Much Does Sports Illustrated Really Know?

I have been a loyal subscriber to Sports Illustrated for almost 15 years now. I also subscribed to ESPN, The Magazine for a year or two but really thought it was too busy and tried to pack too much info into each issue. SI is a classic and the writing/reporting really do keep my interest and attention. The issues I typically look forward to the most are the league preview issues. These issues will roll through the specific league it is previewing, rank teams, forecast where each team will finish in it’s respective division, forecast playoff pairings, forecast the league championship and eventual champion. SI will have an “anonymous scout” size up each team by disclosing strengths and weaknesses of that respective team as well as key players to watch during the season.

Seemingly every season though when reading through the preview issue I will have a few “you’ve got to be kidding” moments where I may disagree with their “expert” opinions. So a couple of years ago, I started keeping the preview issues to review at the completion of each season just to see how accurate SI’s writers can forecast. So, lets look back at the NFL preview issue and see what they had to say about the order of finish for the divisions, the playoffs, who they thought would be in the Super Bowl and who they forecasted to take home the Lombardi Trophy. I have denoted the actual results in ():

AFC East
Patriots 12-4 (Patriots 16-0)
Jets 9-7 (Bills 7-9)
Bills 8-8 (Jets (4-12)
Dolphins 5-11 (Dolphins 1-15)

AFC North
Bengals 10-6 (Steelers 10-6)
Ravens 10-6; Wildcard (Browns 10-6)
Steelers 8-8 (Bengals 7-9)
Browns 5-11 (Ravens 4-12)

AFC South
Colts 12-4 (Colts 13-3)
Titans 8-8 (Jaguars 11-5; Wildcard)
Jaguars 8-8 (Titans 10-6; Wildcard)
Texans 6-10 (Texans 8-8)

AFC West
Chargers 11-5 (Chargers 11-5)
Broncos 10-6; Wildcard (Broncos 7-9)
Chiefs 7-9 (Raiders 4-12)
Raiders 4-12 (Chiefs 4-12)

NFC East
Eagles 11-5 (Cowboys 13-3)
Cowboys 9-7; Wildcard (Giants 10-6; Wildcard)
Giants 6-10 (Redskins 9-7; Wildcard)
Redskins 6-10 (Eagles 8-8)

NFC North
Bears 11-5 (Packers 13-3)
Packers 6-10 (Vikings 8-8)
Vikings 6-10 (Lions 7-9)
Lions 4-12 (Bears 7-9)

NFC South
Saints 12-4 (Buccaneers 9-7)
Panthers 11-5; Wildcard (Panthers 7-9)
Buccaneers 5-11 (Saints 7-9)
Falcons 3-13 (Falcons 4-12)

NFC West
Seahawks 9-7 (Seahawks 10-6)
Rams 9-7 (Cardinals 8-8)
49ers 8-8 (49ers 5-11)
Cardinals 7-9 (Rams 3-13)

Playoffs:

AFC Wild Card
Chargers beat Broncos (Jaguars beat Steelers)
Bengals beat Ravens (Chargers beat Titans)

NFC Wild Card
Bears beat Cowboys (Seahawks beat Redskins)
Panthers beat Seahawks (Giants beat Buccaneers)

AFC Divisional
Colts beat Bengals (Patriots beat Jaguars)
Chargers beat Patriots (Chargers beat Colts)

NFC Divisional
Saints beat Panthers (Packers beat Seahawks)
Eagles beat Seahawks (Giants beat Cowboys)

AFC Championship
Chargers beat Colts (Patriots beat Chargers)

NFC Championship
Saints beat Eagles (Giants beat Packers)

Super Bowl
Saints beat Chargers (Giants beat Patriots)


So Sports Illustrated, as great as they are, doesn’t know much more than most of its readers. I’m going to try to keep this in mind next season when I get the NFL Preview issue if SI has Dallas getting beat in the Wild Card round and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Movie Review – There Will Be Blood

A couple of friends of mine and I were recently trying to decide on a flick to partake in and narrowed it down to the following: Cloverfield, I Am Legend or There Will Be Blood. Since There Will Be Blood has been nominated for several Oscars, including Best Picture, (and won several Golden Globes, including Best Picture) we decided this would be our choice. We chose…poorly.

The story chronicles the life of Daniel Plainview (Daniel Day Lewis), who transforms himself from a down-and-out silver miner, raising a son on his own, into a self-made oil tycoon. It shows how the ultimate drive for power can corrupt and destroy the soul. Daniel Plainview is unscrupulous, harsh and will stop at nothing to get his hands on as much oil as he can.

First, I will give the pros about There Will Be Blood. The acting was great. I like Daniel Day Lewis. I think he has done a great job in just about everything he’s been in. This film is no different. Daniel Day Lewis may overact at times but generally does a great job with the character. Paul Dano, from Little Miss Sunshine, does a solid job in his portrayal of an evangelical preacher that stands in opposition of Plainview's search for power. So, the acting was top notch but that was about the only thing.

This film should have been titled “There Will Be Boredom”. The movie runs 2 ½ hours and I looked at my watch about 3 times during that span, which is not a good sign. The film has no real story. I went expecting something incredible (worthy of the many Oscar/GG nominations) and got something slow and over-hyped in my opinion. There was an absence of character development and because of that you didn’t know why certain characters behaved the way they did, what their motivation was or where you thought the story was going.

Another aspect of the film which made no sense was the music. The soundtrack didn’t fit the movie and was quite annoying. If you weren’t watching the movie but just listening to the music, you would have thought you were watching a horror movie. It was creepy like music from The Shining. It was played very loudly at confusing and bizarre times too. It just kind of reminded me of nails on a chalk board.

I’m not fond of movies that just have an abrupt ending causing you to say “Is that it? Is that the ending?” This movie has an ending like that. Unsatisfying at best.

So, in the end, I felt like it was a waste of time...and $10.00. I just didn’t get it. Maybe if I see it again, or a few more times, then it might get better or I might understand what the critics see. But on first glance, I wasn’t too impressed. We would have done better with Cloverfield or I Am Legend, that’s for sure.

Monday, February 4, 2008

I am a Genius!

I want to know how many “experts” picked the Giants to win last night? It couldn’t be more than half dozen in the whole country but I can count myself as one of them (not that I count myself an “expert” but rather picked the correct winner of the game). I never thought I would be so happy to see the New York Giants win. However, last night when time expired on Super Bowl XL-Deuce, I was pretty elated. I was happy to see the unstoppable machine that was the Patriots defeated, happy that yet another year will pass, since 1972, without a team going undefeated, happy that the Boston area will not win every major championship this year and happy that Bill Belichick lost. I went into the game not really rooting very hard for NY but by the end of the game, I was pretty excited to see them win. The Giants accomplished a tremendous feat: they took on the top three offenses in the NFL (Patriots, Packers, Cowboys) and beat them all in succession. Oh yeah, and each one of those teams beat NY in the regular season.

The Giants came out and were the aggressor pretty much the entire game. New Yawk had twice as many yards rushing than the New England, had more passing yards and the NY defense sacked Brady more times (5) than he has been sacked in the last 4 years. The Giants were a 13 pt. underdog but it sure didn’t look like it from the way they played. I kept waiting and waiting for Eli to throw a crucial interception (he did throw one although the Patriots didn’t convert it into any points) , for a Giants RB to fumble to ball or for a New York player to commit some horrible penalty that would give the Patriots a leg up. However, that never happened. The defense played well and Eli played well.

Let’s just look at the last month in the life of Eli Manning. A month ago the sports world was dismissing him as mediocre at best. I doubt if anyone predicted Eli to have the type of success he had in the post season this year. To win the Super Bowl, all this mediocre QB had to do was beat the quarterback who will start next Sunday's Pro Bowl (Tony Romo), then the quarterback who would have started the Pro Bowl if he had not withdrawn (Bret Favre), then the quarterback who won the Most Valuable Player trophy this year (Tom Brady) and the undefeated Patriots, already being called the greatest team in history…all on the road. Now, Eli is on top of the world and has definitely earned my respect.

The Patriots meanwhile learned the hard way what the Mavs found out last Spring: it doesn’t matter what happens in the regular season if the team doesn’t win the title. But then again, that’s pretty much true of all professional sports. Timing seems to be everything in sports. When a team peaks and starts playing it’s best will quite often determine it’s post season fate. The Giants were not the best team but a 10-6 team that got hot and played it’s best football the past 4 weeks. That made all the difference.

I could say more about the game but there really isn’t any need. There isn’t any need to rehash bad decisions (like the Patriots going for a 4th and 13, which they failed to pickup, when they could have kicked a makeable 48 yard field goal). There isn’t any need to say how Belichick showed his true colors when he left the field, and his team, before the game technically ended. And there isn’t any need to replay one of the biggest choke jobs in NFL history.

The game spoke for itself…

Friday, February 1, 2008

Super Bowl XL-Deuce

Well, it’s David vs. Goliath in the Super Bowl. The New England Patriots are currently 18-0 (the first team ever to achieve that feat) and are looking to cap off the perfect season this Sunday when they play the New Yawk Football Giants. There has been only 1 undefeated season in the history of the NFL (1972 Dolphins) but that team was no where near as dominant as the Patriots have been this year. Everything from their coaching, to their players, to their philosophy, to their mental toughness just screams champion. NE is the best team in the league, hands down…and could be for years to come. Nothing more needs to be said about them.

However, I don’t think the Giants will be intimidated by the greatness of the Patriots. Their confidence level is sky high after they won playoff games in Dallas and Green Bay. Even though Dallas and GB beat the Giants pretty good during the regular season the Giants seemed unphased by that and got their revenge when it counted. So I don’t think the G-Men put too much stock in the 3 point loss to New England the final game of their season. Plus, NY knows they can play with NE. If Eli didn't throw that INT in the 4th quarter of that game, who knows how it would have turned out.

To win, the Giants have to continue doing what they have in the playoffs in effectively running the ball and committing no turnovers. Eli has yet to throw in interception in the playoffs and was impressive in the NFC Championship game vs. Green Bay. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have proved to be a formidable running back tandem but they both are going to have to bring their “A” game.

I think it will be a tough game (as the previous one was) and could come down to the last series and/or snap just as the Dallas and GB games did; I will be a little surprised if the game is a blowout. And, I've said all season that I think somewhere, someway, somehow the Patriots are going to lose 1 game...even if it's the Super Bowl. I can’t back off that now.

I’m going out on a limb here…my gut says that the Giants are going to pull the upset. This goes against what I've always said and thought...that the better team usually wins. This may just be wishful thinking as I don't want to see any other team (other than Dallas) ever go undefeated. But, I may know nothing because I thought New Yawk would lose their previous 2 games against the Cowboys and the Packers.

However, the last Super Bowl that had a heavy favorite, like the Patriots this year, was in 2001 when the “Best Show on Turf” St. Louis Rams played the New England Patriots led by upstart rookie quarterback Tom Brady. No one, and I mean no one, gave the Patriots 2 shots in 10 to beat the Rams. Most thought the game would be a blowout, just like this year. However, the Patriots played a great game and ended up winning the Super Bowl on a last second field goal by Adam Vinatieri. Maybe the same good fortune will befall the Giants this year.

Prediction: Giants 27, Patriots 24