Tuesday, February 12, 2008

How Much Does Sports Illustrated Really Know?

I have been a loyal subscriber to Sports Illustrated for almost 15 years now. I also subscribed to ESPN, The Magazine for a year or two but really thought it was too busy and tried to pack too much info into each issue. SI is a classic and the writing/reporting really do keep my interest and attention. The issues I typically look forward to the most are the league preview issues. These issues will roll through the specific league it is previewing, rank teams, forecast where each team will finish in it’s respective division, forecast playoff pairings, forecast the league championship and eventual champion. SI will have an “anonymous scout” size up each team by disclosing strengths and weaknesses of that respective team as well as key players to watch during the season.

Seemingly every season though when reading through the preview issue I will have a few “you’ve got to be kidding” moments where I may disagree with their “expert” opinions. So a couple of years ago, I started keeping the preview issues to review at the completion of each season just to see how accurate SI’s writers can forecast. So, lets look back at the NFL preview issue and see what they had to say about the order of finish for the divisions, the playoffs, who they thought would be in the Super Bowl and who they forecasted to take home the Lombardi Trophy. I have denoted the actual results in ():

AFC East
Patriots 12-4 (Patriots 16-0)
Jets 9-7 (Bills 7-9)
Bills 8-8 (Jets (4-12)
Dolphins 5-11 (Dolphins 1-15)

AFC North
Bengals 10-6 (Steelers 10-6)
Ravens 10-6; Wildcard (Browns 10-6)
Steelers 8-8 (Bengals 7-9)
Browns 5-11 (Ravens 4-12)

AFC South
Colts 12-4 (Colts 13-3)
Titans 8-8 (Jaguars 11-5; Wildcard)
Jaguars 8-8 (Titans 10-6; Wildcard)
Texans 6-10 (Texans 8-8)

AFC West
Chargers 11-5 (Chargers 11-5)
Broncos 10-6; Wildcard (Broncos 7-9)
Chiefs 7-9 (Raiders 4-12)
Raiders 4-12 (Chiefs 4-12)

NFC East
Eagles 11-5 (Cowboys 13-3)
Cowboys 9-7; Wildcard (Giants 10-6; Wildcard)
Giants 6-10 (Redskins 9-7; Wildcard)
Redskins 6-10 (Eagles 8-8)

NFC North
Bears 11-5 (Packers 13-3)
Packers 6-10 (Vikings 8-8)
Vikings 6-10 (Lions 7-9)
Lions 4-12 (Bears 7-9)

NFC South
Saints 12-4 (Buccaneers 9-7)
Panthers 11-5; Wildcard (Panthers 7-9)
Buccaneers 5-11 (Saints 7-9)
Falcons 3-13 (Falcons 4-12)

NFC West
Seahawks 9-7 (Seahawks 10-6)
Rams 9-7 (Cardinals 8-8)
49ers 8-8 (49ers 5-11)
Cardinals 7-9 (Rams 3-13)

Playoffs:

AFC Wild Card
Chargers beat Broncos (Jaguars beat Steelers)
Bengals beat Ravens (Chargers beat Titans)

NFC Wild Card
Bears beat Cowboys (Seahawks beat Redskins)
Panthers beat Seahawks (Giants beat Buccaneers)

AFC Divisional
Colts beat Bengals (Patriots beat Jaguars)
Chargers beat Patriots (Chargers beat Colts)

NFC Divisional
Saints beat Panthers (Packers beat Seahawks)
Eagles beat Seahawks (Giants beat Cowboys)

AFC Championship
Chargers beat Colts (Patriots beat Chargers)

NFC Championship
Saints beat Eagles (Giants beat Packers)

Super Bowl
Saints beat Chargers (Giants beat Patriots)


So Sports Illustrated, as great as they are, doesn’t know much more than most of its readers. I’m going to try to keep this in mind next season when I get the NFL Preview issue if SI has Dallas getting beat in the Wild Card round and the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for exposing this. It's always fun to hold the "experts" accountable for their prognostication. In the end, as you mentioned, you realize they are really no smarter than even the most novice of sports fans when it comes to predicting outcomes. Anything can happen in sports, and that notion proves itself over and over again. I guess that's what makes sports so much fun and gives even the most futile of teams/fans hope every season.

There is something I have been meaning to do for years now, but have never kept up with it. I have wanted to publish the AP preseason college football rankings and list the end of season poll next to it just to see how absurd the preseason rankings are. Perhaps you would be interested in this assignment?

brooks-brooks said...

I have no problem with that. I will try to get a hold of the first AP ranking that comes out and save it and compare to the final ranking. Might be interesting to see how the AP writers match up with SI.