Bring On The Hornets

Well, the NBA playoff pairings are set and the Mavs will be playing the New Orleans Hornets. Dallas played New Orleans last night for the right to play them in the playoffs and while the game was a bit more meaningful to the Mavs, the Hornets didn’t back down and rest their starters like I thought they might.

The Hornets already knew they were locked into the #2 seed…beating Dallas or losing to Dallas would not change that. So, I thought the Hornets would play their starters the first half, maybe, and then put in their backups the rest of the game. I was sorely mistaken as New Orleans played their starters the whole game.

Even though the game meant a little more to Dallas than it did to New Orleans, the Mavs didn’t show it in the first half. It seemed like, for a while, that Dallas was just content to make it into the playoffs, which was the attitude they took last weekend losing to 2 non-playoff teams in Portland and Seattle. However, just when it looked like New Orleans was going to pull away from Dallas, Brandon Bass threw down a vicious dunk that not only sparked the crowd but sparked the rest of the Mavs roster. From there, Dallas went on a 30-8 run that took them from down by 11 to leading by 13. Jason Kidd and Jason Terry really stepped up their game, each one scoring 27 points and 30 points respectively which is exactly what Dallas needed because New Orleans kept Dirk in check all night long (he was 4 of 16 shooting for only 12 points). Jason Kidd also hit a major milestone by recording his 100th triple-double of his career.

New Orleans cut the lead to 4 points, at 100-96, but then Dallas pulled away and ended up winning 111-98. Again, New Orleans was playing all their starters right up until the end of the game. I think that is huge because if the Hornets had rested their starters, they could say that they really didn’t try to win (cough, cough…like the Mavs did last year) but that things will be different in the playoffs when Dallas has to contend against their full roster and not just backups. Not so in this case. New Orleans gave it their all and still lost by 13.

Even though this is #2 vs. #7, this is not the typical 2/7 match up. Most years, a #2 seed will have anywhere from 58 to 60 wins and a #7 seed will typically have 45-48 wins. However, New Orleans has 56 wins and Dallas has 51 wins so there really isn’t that much separation between the two teams. Below is a comparison between the teams, when they played each other this season:

Individual Stats:
Scoring - D. Nowitzki : 23.6 point per game; C. Paul: 21.1 point per game
Rebounds - D. Nowitzki: 8.6; T. Chandler: 11.8
Assists - J. Kidd: 9.5; C. Paul: 11.6
Steals - J. Kidd: 2.1; C. Paul: 2.7
Blocks -E. Dampier: 1.5; D. West: 1.3

Team Stats:
Rebounds - Dallas: 43.0; New Orleans: 41.8
Assists - Dallas: 21.0; New Orleans: 21.8
Steals - Dallas: 6.0; New Orleans: 7.8
Points Scored - Dallas: 100.4; New Orleans: 100.9
Points Allowed - Dallas: 95.9; New Orleans: 95.6

Most of the “experts” think, as I do, that the Mavs will prevail in this series. And if that happens, I really don’t think it will be that much of an upset even though it would be a #2 seed losing in the first round. As I pointed out above, the teams are pretty evenly matched and in the season series, both team’s wins came at home. That really only leaves playoff experience…which the Mavs have a lot of (the past 8 seasons) and the Hornets don’t. That is why I think the Mavs will move on to round 2. The playoffs are a different animal than the regular season; everything is ratcheted up a notch. Every position is huge and the half court offense and playing defense becomes more important. And while New Orleans is a great team with a bright future, their lack of playoff experience will catch up with them here.

My prediction: Mavs in 7.