Can Tech Do It Again?

This year, the Big XII has been ridiculously good. And even though I’m more an SEC guy, I have to admit that this year the Big XII is better. A big reason for that is the offenses in the Big XII and two of the big dogs, Texas Tech and OU, square off tomorrow in Norman with the winner moving one more step toward the Big XII title and the national championship game.

Tech has been in the zone lately. They beat Texas a few weeks ago on a last second touchdown to Crabtree. It was the biggest game Tech had ever been apart of…and they didn’t blow it. That may seem like a harsh statement but really the last few years, they have done exactly that. They have feasted on the weaker bunk mates of the Big XII south but then when time comes to play Texas or OU, they seemingly cower and get rolled. But not this year. This year, Tech has a decent running game, to compliment their usual ultra pass happy offense, and they have a very solid defense which all but shut Colt McCoy down in the first half of the Texas game and limited Okla. State’s QB, Zach Robinson, to only 182 passing yards. In my opinion, the reason Tech is where they are this year is the emergence of their defense but in order to win tomorrow in Norman, a place where Leech (who was Stoops’ offensive coordinator in 1999) has never won since leaving in 2000 to become Tech’s head coach, Tech’s defense is going to have to bring their “A” game. The Sooners carry the nation’s longest home winning streak at 23 games, and this is probably the biggest game in Norman since top-ranked Nebraska came calling in 2000. The Huskers left in defeat that day and OU marched on to the national championship behind QB Josh Huepel (who is now OU’s QB coach). Oh yeah, OU is 59-2 at home under Stoops…not too shabby.

I feel like the masses still haven’t fully bought into Tech yet though...or maybe it’s just me. I mean, everyone knows Tech is very good…probably great. But when you mention teams that are in the national championship hunt, Tech is not a team that generally comes to mind. That’s probably because of their history, or lack thereof, in big games like this. This is exactly the type of game that Tech would usually lay an egg. And to be quite honest, I thought they would do just that two weeks ago against Oklahoma State however the exact opposite happened. But OSU is not OU and Mike Gundy is not Bob Stoops. OU has also had a 2 week layoff from their last game, just as Tech did, so both teams should be rested up and ready to roll.

Tech is going to score some point as they almost always do. Their offense is probably the best oiled machine in college football today…darn near unstoppable. Techs QB Graham Harrell, who has 36 TD passes and leads the nation with 4,077 yards, has already guided the Red Raiders to victory against Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks. OU's secondary struggled with passes over the middle against Texas, and that's where Texas Tech makes its living. And just when you think you know what pass Tech is going to throw next, they’ll slip a running play in on you. Tech doesn't run the ball a bunch, but they run it effectively keeping the opposition off balance and guessing.

OU will also score as they normally do. The Sooners have scored on everyone, including five TD passes by Bradford in a 45-35 loss to Texas. Texas Tech's pass defense is better than people think, but Bradford on his home turf should be lethal. OU’s running game, while not what it was with Adrian Peterson, is effective and a bit better than Tech’s. OU scores in bunches quickly and if they get up early, things could get ugly for Tech. However, with Tech’s offense and the efficiency of it, no lead is insurmountable (Tech rallied from a 31 point deficit to beat Minnesota in the Insight Bowl game two years ago).

I think this game will come down to OU’s offensive line vs. Tech’s defensive line. If OU can get their running game going and consistently keep the chains moving, I’m not sure Tech’s defense will be able to hold up. OU’s o-line is pretty big and when they are working well, they push defenses around like nobody else. However, if OU gets into a quick scoring match where they are trying to match Tech score for score, OU could be in trouble. I think OU needs to slow down their offense and grind it out a bit more. The key for OU is to lean on Tech’s defense more and more, thereby keeping Tech’s offense off the field, and by the 4th quarter, their defense will be gassed. And I think that is what will happen.

As much as I would love to see Tech win (I’ve got no love for OU), I think their schedule catches up with them here. Plus the fact that OU is at home where they have lost 2 times since ’99 I think is too much for Tech to overcome. I think it will be a good game but in the end, I think OU wins by 14 points.