Uh oh...Barber's Out vs. Pittsburgh

A friend of mine and I were talking yesterday about Sunday's Cowboys - Steelers game on Sunday. When I told him I thought Dallas would win a low scoring, muck-it-up type game (kind of like the Washington game 3 weeks ago) he asked me "even without Barber?" (Marion Barber dislocated his pinkie toe on one of his feet during the Thanksgiving Day game vs. Seattle). I told him I heard was it would be a game time decision and that I really thought he would give it a go. I mean this is probably the biggest game for Dallas to this point in the season and with the way some of the other teams have been winning, Dallas can ill afford to lose 2 of the remaining 4 games.

Well, today about mid day I got a text message saying that Barber was definitely out for Sunday's game and didn't even get on the team charter up to Pittsburgh. Ouch. Actually make that double ouch because of how the Steeler's defense is playing. Pittsburgh leads the NFL in rushing defense with 71.2 yards per game average, the lowest by any team since the 1970 NFL merger, and have not allowed an opposing back to gain even 80 yards.

With Barber out, that means the bulk of the dirty work is going to have to go to rookie Tashard Choice who Dallas drafted in the 4th round this past April. Choice, from Georgia Tech, rushed for a career-high 57 yards on 11 carries when he replaced Barber on Thanksgiving, giving him 147 yards on 30 carries this season. And really, that isn't too shaby...4.9 yards per rush. I'll take that any day. However, playing Seattle's defense and Pittsburgh's defense are pretty much night and day. Backing up Choice will be Alonzo Coleman who Dallas signed off their practice squad where he had spent the better part of the past two years.

So it looks as if Dallas' chances of coming out of Pittsburgh with a "W" don't seem that great. But you know what...I'm not backing off my original prediction. I'm sticking with Dallas winning a lower scoring slug fest-type game. I think the Cowboy's defense has improved enough in recent weeks that they can keep the game close and I think Dallas has enough weapons on offense that they will be able to score a few times which may be all that's needed.

The key to this game is turnovers though. The team who wins the turnover battle I think will win. This is where Dallas' defense can keep them in the game. However, Pittsburgh has gotten more than their fair share of takeaways this year as well. Garrett needs to call a more conservative game tomorrow and Romo needs to play more conservatively, much to the chagrin of TO Owens. With two YOUNG RBs carrying the load for the team, the offense can't really afford to take more than a couple of shots down field.

The game might also come down to which ever team can make a big play on special teams. This is where Pac Man Jones comes in. He makes his triumphant return to the lineup and will be not only returning punts but will be back returning kicks. Everything I heard in the off season about this guy said that he is dynamic when he gets the ball in his hands. But we have yet to see that...at all. So this is Pac Man's chance to shine and put everything that happened earlier in the season to rest. If he can bust a kick return or punt for big yardage, or even a TD, that could be the difference in the game.

Dallas is more desperate to get a win than Pittsburgh. That doesn't mean they want the game more than the Steelers but the Cowboys can less afford a loss right now. That plus the Steelers defense may be a bit overconfident knowing Barber is out. Or maybe I'm just hoping against hope and this is all wishful thinking. But I gotta stick with my original prediction...I think Dallas finds a way to win an ugly game.

Prediction: Dallas 20, Pittsburgh 17